First CLADAG data mining prize : data mining for longitudinal data with different marketing campaigns

The CLAssification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society recently organised a competition, the 'Young Researcher Data Mining Prize' sponsored by the SAS Institute. This paper was the winning entry and in it we detail our approach to the problem proposed and our results. The main methods used are linear regression, mixture models, Bayesian autoregressive and Bayesian dynamic models

Mixing for some non-uniformly hyperbolic systems

Author's manuscript. The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00023-015-0399-8First available online: 14 February 2015In this work, we present an abstract framework that allows to obtain mixing (and in some cases sharp mixing) rates for a reasonable large class of invertible systems preserving an infinite measure. The examples explicitly considered are the invertible analogue of both Markov and non-Markov unit interval maps. For these examples, in addition to optimal results on mixing and rates of mixing in the infinite case, we obtain results on the decay of correlation in the finite case of invertible non-Markov maps, which, to our knowledge, were not previously addressed. The proposed method consists of a combination of the framework of operator renewal theory, as introduced in the context of dynamical systems by Sarig (Invent Math 150:629–653, 2002), with the framework of function spaces of distributions developed in the recent years along the lines of Blank et al. (Nonlinearity 15:1905–1973, 2001).European Research Council (ERC

The characterisation of diesel cavitating flow using time-resolved light scattering

A conventional six-hole valve-covered orifice (VCO) injector nozzle has been modified in order to provide optical access to the region below the needle, and the nozzle passages. This has been achieved through the removal of the metal tip, and its replacement with a transparent acrylic tip of identical geometry. Elastic scattering of light obtained from the internal cavitating flow inside the nozzle holes of the optically accessible diesel injector tip was captured on a high speed electronic camera. The optical image data was obtained from a nozzle with a common rail pressure of 400 bar, and for two diesel fuels, in order to identify differences in cavitation behaviour. A set of 100 mean diesel fuel injection images were obtained from 30 fuel injection pulses, for each operating condition. The imaged mean cavitation occurring in the nozzle holes was converted to the mean proportion of nozzle hole area producing cavitation scattering. The mean cavitation area images were then analysed, and were able to demonstrate the inverse relationship between fuel mass injected and the relative area producing cavitation scattering

Anosov diffeomorphisms, anisotropic BV spaces and regularity of foliations

Given any smooth Anosov map, we construct a Banach space on which the associated transfer operator is quasi-compact. The peculiarity of such a space is that, in the case of expanding maps, it reduces exactly to the usual space of functions of bounded variation which has proved to be particularly successful in studying the statistical properties of piecewise expanding maps. Our approach is based on a new method of studying the absolute continuity of foliations, which provides new information that could prove useful in treating hyperbolic systems with singularities

Zeta functions and Dynamical Systems

In this brief note we present a very simple strategy to investigate dynamical determinants for uniformly hyperbolic systems. The construction builds on the recent introduction of suitable functional spaces which allow to transform simple heuristic arguments in rigorous ones. Although the results so obtained are not exactly optimal the straightforwardness of the argument makes it noticeable.Comment: 7 pages, no figuer

Hydrodynamic Limit for an Hamiltonian System with Boundary Conditions and Conservative Noise

We study the hyperbolic scaling limit for a chain of N coupled anharmonic oscillators. The chain is attached to a point on the left and there is a force (tension) $\tau$ acting on the right. In order to provide good ergodic properties to the system, we perturb the Hamiltonian dynamics with random local exchanges of velocities between the particles, so that momentum and energy are locally conserved. We prove that in the macroscopic limit the distributions of the elongation, momentum and energy, converge to the solution of the Euler system of equations, in the smooth regime.Comment: New deeply revised version. 1 figure adde

Instability statistics and mixing rates

We claim that looking at probability distributions of \emph{finite time} largest Lyapunov exponents, and more precisely studying their large deviation properties, yields an extremely powerful technique to get quantitative estimates of polynomial decay rates of time correlations and Poincar\'e recurrences in the -quite delicate- case of dynamical systems with weak chaotic properties.Comment: 5 pages, 5 figure

Expanding Semiflows on Branched Surfaces and One-Parameter Semigroups of Operators

We consider expanding semiflows on branched surfaces. The family of transfer operators associated to the semiflow is a one-parameter semigroup of operators. The transfer operators may also be viewed as an operator-valued function of time and so, in the appropriate norm, we may consider the vector-valued Laplace transform of this function. We obtain a spectral result on these operators and relate this to the spectrum of the generator of this semigroup. Issues of strong continuity of the semigroup are avoided. The main result is the improvement to the machinery associated with studying semiflows as one-parameter semigroups of operators and the study of the smoothness properties of semiflows defined on branched manifolds, without encoding as a suspension semiflow

Who lives in overcrowded households in north-east London? Cross-sectional study of linked electronic health records and Energy Performance Certificate register data.

Objectives Household overcrowding is associated with adverse health outcomes, including increased risk of infectious diseases, mental health problems, and poor educational attainment. We investigated inequalities in overcrowding in an urban, ethnically diverse, and disadvantaged London population by pseudonymously linking electronic health records (EHR) to Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) data. Approach We used pseudonymised Unique Property Reference Numbers to link EHRs for 1,066,156 currently registered patients from 321,318 households in north-east London to EPC data. We measured household occupancy and derived the bedroom standard overcrowding definition (number of rooms relative to occupants’ sex and ages) to estimate overcrowding prevalence. We examined associations with: household composition (adults only, single adult+children, ≥2 working-age adults+children, ≥1 retirement-age adults+children, three-generational household); ethnic background (White, South Asian, Black, Mixed, Other, missing); and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) quintile. We used multivariable logistic regression to estimate the adjusted odds (aOR) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) of overcrowding. Results Overall, 243,793 (22.9%) people were overcrowded. People living in households with children, or three-generational households were more likely (aOR [95% CI] 3.79 [3.74 - 3.84]; 6.53 [6.41 - 6.66] respectively), and single adults or retirement age adults with children less likely (0.36 [0.35 - 0.38]; 0.36 [0.23 - 0.57] respectively), to be overcrowded. Overcrowding was more likely among people from Asian or Black ethnic backgrounds (1.24 [1.22 - 1.25] and 1.17 [1.15 - 1.19] respectively). There was a dose-response relationship between IMD quintile and overcrowding: OR 0.20 [0.20 - 0.21] in the least deprived compared to most deprived quintile. Conclusion One in five people in north-east London live in overcrowded households with marked inequalities by ethnicity, household generational composition, and deprivation. Up-to-date estimates of household overcrowding can be derived from linked housing and health records and used to evaluate the impact of economic policies on health and housing inequalities

Design and development of a peristaltic pump for constant flow applications

In wide-ranging areas, including hydraulics, biomedical, automotive, and aerospace, there is often a need to move a fluid with a constant flow rate. This is difficult to achieve with any type of pump and usually other elements are inserted to regularize the output. This study focused on the peristaltic pump because there are few studies on it and it has some interesting features, such as extreme simplicity, a small number of components, and the extreme compactness of the whole system. The first part of this study is focused on analyzing the classical geometry of the peristaltic pump to understand the origin of the discontinuity in the flow rate; the second part proposes a new geometry that mitigates the flow irregularity by more than 200%. In this way, it is possible to use it in all the sectors where a constant flow rate is required but where insulation between the fluid and the machine is required. Together with the flow study, an analysis of how the main geometric parameters affect the operation of the pump is provided, complete with explanatory graphs and tables. A prototype made through additive manufacturing technologies is also proposed